Partition, Power Sharing and Peace: A Spatial Analysis

讲 座 信 息

Talk Title：Partition, Power Sharing and Peace: A Spatial Analysis

Time: January 10,2024 ( Wednesday,15:00-16:30 )

Location: Department of Sociology, 1127

Abstract:

Does the partitioning of states along ethnic lines reduce conflict? While theorists drawing on the “security dilemma” argue that partition prevents conflict recurrence by separating the parties, others dispute these findings. Advancing in four analytical steps, this work first reconceptualize partition as decreased cohabitation in dyads between transnationally defined ethnic groups. Based on a global dataset (1945-2017), we find that whereas complete partition reduces internal conflict, its incomplete application increases this risk. The second step adopts a nationalist logic and tests whether partition reduces conflict if it eliminates dyadic domination. Third, the analysis focuses on whether reduced domination makes civil conflict less likely, with or without border change. We show that power sharing can be at least as effective in reducing domination as partition. The fourth and final step investigates the various side effects of state splits on both civil and interstate conflict. Generally, we find that partition may fuel instability both within and outside the dyad.

Presenter: Lars-Erik Cederman

德国国家科学院院士，2018 年获得 Marcel Benoist科学奖，目前担任苏黎世联邦理工学院人文、社会和政治科学系主任。著有《世界政治中的新兴行动者：国家和民族如何发展和解体》(Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve)，《不平等、冤情和内战》(Inequality, Grievances and Civil War),《分享权力，确保和平？民族包容与内战》(Sharing Power, Securing Peace? Ethnic Inclusion and Civil War)。文章多见于《美国政治科学评论》《美国政治学杂志》《国际组织》《世界政治》《美国社会学杂志》和《科学》等学术期刊。主要研究方向包括民族主义、国家形成和冲突过程。

Discussant: Dr Kurtuluş Gemici

浙江大学社会学系长聘副教授。本科就读于土耳其Bosphorus大学经济学专业，硕博毕业于UCLA社会学专业，师从著名历史社会学家Micheal Mann，其后在广有盛誉的德国普朗克研究所从事博士后研究。其研究领域为金融社会学、政治经济学、政治社会学、经济社会学和社会网络研究等。

Discussant: Andre Python

浙江大学数据科学研究中心百人计划研究员。国家自然科学基金委外国优秀青年学者，浙江省人民政府西湖友谊奖获得者。先后在英国牛津大学、帝国理工大学、圣安德鲁斯大学、瑞士洛桑大学、弗里堡大学等国际顶尖大学工作学习多年。其研究领域广泛，致力于统计学与自然科学和人文科学的交叉研究。Andre开发和应用空间模型以更好的研究具有空间分布现象其背后的机理，比如传染性疾病、恐怖主义活动等。Andre的研究工作目前在多个高水平学术期刊发表，包括Science Advances,  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS)，Journal of Conflict Resolution, Political Geography等。