历史政治经济学系列 第9讲

讲 座 信 息

主题：State Collapse and Rural Militarization

时间：4月25日（周五）上午10：00— 12：00

地点：浙江大学紫金港西区成均苑8幢1017

主办：浙江大学社会学研究所

摘要：This study explores how peasants responded to banditry governance during China’s warlord era (1910s–1920s). We argue that, after the central government collapsed in 1916 due to President Yuan Shikai’s death, local governors shifted from “stationary bandits” (investing in governance) to “roving bandits” (predatory extraction), triggering rural militarization. To identify the causal effect of warlord predation on rural militarization, we construct a panel dataset of 283 prefectures (1912–1928).  Using Yuan’s death as an exogenous shock, a difference-in-differences design shows that a one-standard-deviation increase in “roving bandits” exposure raises rural militia activity by 19.76% of a SD. We find that the rural militia was positively related to the frequency of wars launched by warlords, frequency of governors’ turnover as well as rural mobilizing capacity. Our findings highlight how societal responses to state collapse, shedding new light on Olson’s state theory.

主讲人：王明，南京大学商学院助理教授

2021年6月毕业于清华大学，获得理论经济学博士学位，主要研究领域量化历史，经济史，政治经济学。文章发表于经济研究，管理世界等国内知名期刊。

评论人：周陆洋，浙江大学社会学系百人计划研究员

麦吉尔大学社会学博士，研究方向为政治社会学、比较历史研究、帝国与民族主义、革命与战争等，相关研究论文已经发表在European Journal of Sociology, Nations and Nationalism, Journal of Historical Sociology, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Modern Asian Studies, Nationalities Papers, Routledge Handbook of Chinese Studies, 《二十一世纪》等刊物，著有 Revolution in China and Russia: Reorganizing Empires into Nation-States (Manchester University Press, 2025) 。

主持人：张晓鸣，浙江大学社会学系新百人计划研究员

香港大学经管学院博士，研究方向为历史政治经济学、历史社会学、组织理论等。目前研究议题包括，历史时期中国的国家能力及其起源、古代官僚体系的组织学原理、中国早期复杂社会的兴起与衰落等。文章发表于American Journal of Political Science; Journal of Development Economics; Journal of Comparative Economics;  Journal of Chinese Governance; 学术月刊等期刊。